Denver Broncos

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutJaylen Waddle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Despite the fact that the wideout was playing through a chest injury, Waddle came up big when it counted, connecting with Bo Nix on a one-yard TD in the second quarter before snagging a two-point conversion in the fourth as Denver mounted a comeback from a 24-13 deficit. Waddle's 29-315-2 line on 51 targets through his first eight games as a Bronco is disappointing, but he still has time to pick up the pace beginning with a Week 9 tilt against the Panthers.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line75supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×0.84 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — @ CAR

Nov 8, 2026

31stof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CAR allows 0.1 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 24 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jaylen Waddle has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.