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Pittsburgh SteelersJaylen Warren
#30 · RB · 5' 8" · 215 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 57.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylen Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Warren led the team in rushing yards and came one receiving yard shy of Germie Bernard's team lead in a game that fellow Steelers running back Rico Dowdle (toe) exited in the second quarter. If Dowdle isn't ready to play in Week 3, Warren would be in line for a heavy workload against the Bengals. Warren has 150 scrimmage yards on 28 touches through two games, which is a similar level of per-game production to the 2025 regular season, but he has yet to score in 2026 after posting eight total touchdowns last season.
Verdict
vs 47.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
46.8 RUSH YDS(×0.86 context)
L5 52.4 · L10 55.4 · med 44.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.2 · ceil 66.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 47.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CIN allows 19.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Warren has gone over 47.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (19.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.