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Houston TexansJaylin Noel Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jaylin Noel has gone over 6.5 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylin Noel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Toe Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 15, 2027
Noel was forced out of this past Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants after going down with the toe injury with just under nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The loss of Noel is a major blow to the Texans, as he had been serving as the team's top return man in addition to emerging as a big-play threat on offense. Through Houston's first seven games, Noel had recorded 19 receptions for a team-leading 331 yards and two touchdowns and added 26 yards on four carries.
Verdict
vs 6.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
8.7 FS(×0.89 context)
L5 10.8 · L10 9.5 · med 7.3
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 4.7 · ceil 14.5
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 6.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ LAC
Nov 8, 2026
27thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 8.1 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jaylin Noel has gone over 6.5 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 32 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Jaylin Noel research
Jaylin Noel — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Noel Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Noel Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Noel Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.