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Houston TexansJaylin Noel Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jaylin Noel has gone over 3.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 3.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylin Noel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Noel caught both of his targets for 53 yards in the season opener, operating as Houston's No. 3 receiver and running a route on just 33 percent of dropbacks. He should get more playing time this week, though Xavier Hutchinson and Kayshon Boutte are more likely to take snaps in two-wide sets. Both have maintained consistently low target rates across multiple years of significant playing time, so Noel could make an impact even if he's just the No. 3 receiver.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
3.4 TGT(×0.94 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.7 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
IND allows 4.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaylin Noel has gone over 3.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Jaylin Noel research
Jaylin Noel — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Noel Receptions→
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Noel Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Noel Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.