Houston Texans

Jaylin Noel Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylin Noel has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 9 decided games (22%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutJaylin Noel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Noel caught both of his targets for 53 yards in the season opener, operating as Houston's No. 3 receiver and running a route on just 33 percent of dropbacks. He should get more playing time this week, though Xavier Hutchinson and Kayshon Boutte are more likely to take snaps in two-wide sets. Both have maintained consistently low target rates across multiple years of significant playing time, so Noel could make an impact even if he's just the No. 3 receiver.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line80supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.94 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Last 209 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Season9 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	22%	2/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%2/8Low

Next matchup — @ IND

Sep 27, 2026

18thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

IND allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jaylin Noel has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 9 decided times (22%) — versus 22% across the full season. IND has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 22%.