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Cleveland BrownsJerry Jeudy
#3 · WR · 6' 1" · 195 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 34.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJerry Jeudy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson had a relatively productive day with 324 passing yards (albeit without a score), but Jeudy was on the receiving end of only one of his passes. The veteran wideout logged his usual amount of playing time, notching a 60 percent offensive snap share to finish third among Cleveland wide receivers. It was the third time this season Jeudy has finished without a catch, but the other two instances were in Weeks 3 and 4, and he had been more involved of late, averaging 3.5 catches and 36.3 receiving yards over his previous four games. With that in mind, he could get back on track in Week 9 against a New Orleans defense that has been middle-of-the-pack against wideouts this year.
Verdict
vs 26.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency10argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
31.8 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 34.2 · L10 34.2 · med 26.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.6 · ceil 42.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 26.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Jerry Jeudy has gone over 26.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 14.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.5%
Our model puts the over at 54.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (14.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.