Cleveland Browns

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jerry Jeudy has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutJerry Jeudy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jeudy's first target from Deshaun Watson in the first quarter resulted in an interception, leading to a 30-yard touchdown pass from Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington. Jeudy and Watson connected on passes of 20 and six yards late in the second quarter, but the seventh-year wide receiver did not see a target in the second half. His 32 snaps on offense were third most behind rookies Denzel Boston (47) and KC Concepcion (35), and Jeudy also is competing with tight end Harold Fannin for targets. Up next is a Week 2 road clash against the Buccaneers on Sept. 20.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 92% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line92supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.83 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2016 games

13%over

2 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 3%–36%

Season16 games

13%over

2 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 3%–36%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	13%	2/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home11%1/9Medium

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days13%2/15Medium

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 27, 2026

25thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CAR allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jerry Jeudy has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 13% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 13%.