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Cleveland BrownsJerry Jeudy
#3 · WR · 6' 1" · 195 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 36.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJerry Jeudy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jeudy couldn't improve on his 2-26-0 receiving line (on four targets) during the Browns' Week 1 loss to the Jaguars. The seventh-year pro played 34 of 58 offensive snaps Sunday (58.6 percent), third-most among Cleveland wide receivers behind rookies Denzel Boston (54) and KC Concepcion (38). Jeudy finished the 2025 regular season with the second-most receiving yards on the Browns, but it appears Boston, Concepcion, tight end Harold Fannin and even running back Quinshon Judkins are the preferred targets for Deshaun Watson to open the season. Jeudy will look for better results in Cleveland's home opener against Carolina on Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 26.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency1argues against it
Projection
26.9 REC YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 26.2 · L10 34.9 · med 24.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 17.0 · ceil 54.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 26.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CAR allows 35.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jerry Jeudy has gone over 26.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 44% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (35.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 22.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.