San Francisco 49ers

Jordan James Carries

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan James has gone over 5.5 CAR in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 6.0 CAR · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Jordan James's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Ribs Fracture

It's a rough start to training camp for a player that some had tabbed as the favorite for San Francisco's No. 2 RB job. James should be ready well before Week 1, but missed practice time is a big deal for a player in his situation. The Niners currently have third-round pick Kaelon Black and veteran journeymen Patrick Taylor and Sincere McCormick for depth behind Christian McCaffrey.

Verdict

vs 5.5 CARCarries

Warm overFireFactor 42/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

6.0 CAR

L5 6.0 · L10 6.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 6.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
5.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — CAR per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 18, 2026

31stof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

SEA allows 9.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Jordan James has gone over 5.5 CAR 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most CAR of 32 teams (9.5 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.