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Green Bay PackersJordan Love
#10 · QB · 6' 4" · 219 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 280.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Love isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Love continued his season-long trend of prolific passing yardage totals in the Packers' fifth win of the season, and Thursday's total was accomplished with Christian Watson missing almost a full quarter because of chest and rib injuries. Love connected with Tucker Kraft (12 yards), Matthew Golden (24 yards) and Josh Jacobs (four yards) for his trio of TD passes, a figure that marked a new season high. Love did throw an interception for a third straight game, but it didn't lead to any Panthers points. Love is already up to what is currently a league-high 2,246 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes on the season heading into a Week 9 road showdown against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 281.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
250.2 PASS YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 280.4 · L10 280.8 · med 282.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 227.8 · ceil 345.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 281.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 281.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ NE
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 227.9 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jordan Love has gone over 281.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 18th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (227.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 75.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 274.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-16.2%
Our model puts the over at 33.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (274.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.