Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Mason Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia Tech
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutJordan Mason isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Though the Vikings have yet to declare a starting QB between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, there's continuity elsewhere in the offense, with the team's top two RBs, WRs and TEs from last year back for another campaign. Mason is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he recorded 758 yards and six TDs on 159 carries to go along with 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests, while Jones carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns, adding 28 catches (on 41 targets) for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason and Jones both still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- is in the making for 2026, while Claiborne is a candidate to mix in on passing downs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2013 games

0%over

0 over · 13 under

High confidence95% CI 0%–23%

Season13 games

0%over

0 over · 13 under

High confidence95% CI 0%–23%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/6Medium

Away0%0/7Medium

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/12High

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.J. McCarthy out

Without (5g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

Aaron Jones Sr. out

Without (5g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

30thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

GB allows 0.0 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 30th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.