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New Orleans SaintsJuwan Johnson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Juwan Johnson has gone over 11.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 11.6 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJuwan Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson sat out Wednesday's practice entirely due to an illness, but he ramped up as the week went on, going from limited Thursday to all activity Friday, thereby clearing him for Week 2 action. The status of New Orleans' top WR Chris Olave (hamstring) is in question heading into the weekend, so Johnson could be poised for more looks from QB Tyler Shough on Sunday, even if Olave is able to suit up. Johnson turned his seven Week 1 targets into three catches for 54 yards and one touchdown in an overtime loss at Detroit.
Verdict
vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
10.8 FS(×0.94 context)
L5 12.5 · L10 11.6 · med 10.6
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 15.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 11.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 24% | 4/17 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
LV allows 4.1 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Juwan Johnson has gone over 11.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (4.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Juwan Johnson research
Juwan Johnson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Johnson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Johnson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Johnson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.