New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Juwan Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutJuwan Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Johnson restructured his deal with the Saints in March to free up cap space and is coming off a career year, but the team's offseason investments at tight end gives him more competition for targets. Fant represents another proven receiving option, while Delp's athleticism could make him an upgrade over departees Jack Stoll and Foster Moreau. New Orleans also added a first-round wideout in rookie Jordyn Tyson (undisclosed), further muddying the target share picture. While Johnson's role in the passing game is secure, matching last year's volume of a career-high 103 targets and 77 receptions will likely be a tough ask.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2015 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Season15 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	3/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home14%1/7Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days21%3/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Tyler Shough out

Without (4g)

0.3 REC TD

25% over 0.5

With (11g)

0.2 REC TD

18% over 0.5

Spencer Rattler out+0.1 REC TD when he sits

Without (8g)

0.3 REC TD

25% over 0.5

With (7g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ ATL

Jan 4, 2026

31stof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

ATL allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Juwan Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 31st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.