Loading…
New Orleans SaintsJuwan Johnson Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Juwan Johnson has gone over 4.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.7 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJuwan Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson sat out Wednesday's practice entirely due to an illness, but he ramped up as the week went on, going from limited Thursday to all activity Friday, thereby clearing him for Week 2 action. The status of New Orleans' top WR Chris Olave (hamstring) is in question heading into the weekend, so Johnson could be poised for more looks from QB Tyler Shough on Sunday, even if Olave is able to suit up. Johnson turned his seven Week 1 targets into three catches for 54 yards and one touchdown in an overtime loss at Detroit.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency41neutral
Projection
4.1 REC(×0.95 context)
L5 4.4 · L10 4.4 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 16/16 | ||
| 94% | 15/16 | ||
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 13% | 2/16 | ||
| 13% | 2/16 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
LV allows 1.0 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Juwan Johnson has gone over 4.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC of 32 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Juwan Johnson research
Juwan Johnson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Johnson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Johnson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Johnson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.