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San Francisco 49ersKaelon Black Carries
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kaelon Black has gone over 9.5 CAR in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Indiana
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Carries · season avg 8.8 CAR · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Carries (CAR)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutKaelon Black isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Christian McCaffrey suffered a thigh injury in the opening period that eventually led to him missing the entire second quarter, affording Black expanded opportunity. The rookie made good use of the extra touches, averaging a career-high 5.3 yards per carry and recording his highest rushing yardage total since his Week 1 NFL debut. Black also rang up his first TD as a professional, a 30-yard breakaway run on the first play of the second quarter. However, the rookie made a key mistake when he lost a fumble with San Francisco nearing the red zone in the second quarter. McCaffrey did return to the game for the second half and now has the Week 8 bye to recover, so Black could be back to a more reduced role in a Week 9 home matchup against the Raiders on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 9.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency42neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
9.3 CAR(×1.04 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 8.8 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Situational splits
Over 9.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%1/5Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
LV allows 12.7 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 9.5 CAR 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. LV has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most CAR of 32 teams (12.7 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 9.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.8%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-120
-6.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-104
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-8.5%
Our model puts the over at 42.7% vs the market's no-vig 51.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (9.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.
More Kaelon Black research
Kaelon Black — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Black Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Black Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Black Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Black Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.