San Francisco 49ers

Kaelon Black Targets

Stats updated: Sep 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 TGT in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.0 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Kaelon Black's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Groin Not Specified

Black made a surprise appearance on Thursday's practice report as limited due to a groin issue, and he wasn't able to do enough Friday to enter the weekend without a designation for Week 2 action. His status may not be confirmed until about 90 minutes before Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, but if Black is inhibited or sidelined, Jordan James would be the primary reserve RB behind starter Christian McCaffrey.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

Warm overFireFactor 43/100· model 68% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.1 TGT(×1.08 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs MIA

Sep 20, 2026

14thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIA allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 0.5 TGT 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.