San Francisco 49ers

Kaelon Black Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaelon Black has gone over 1.5 REC in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Indiana
Experience: Rookie

Line

pays more

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.0 REC · PrizePicks line

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PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

QuestionableConfirm Kaelon Black's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Groin Not Specified

Black made a surprise appearance on Thursday's practice report as limited due to a groin issue, and he wasn't able to do enough Friday to enter the weekend without a designation for Week 2 action. His status may not be confirmed until about 90 minutes before Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, but if Black is inhibited or sidelined, Jordan James would be the primary reserve RB behind starter Christian McCaffrey.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 1/100· model 28% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.1 REC(×1.08 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 1 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs MIA

Sep 20, 2026

9thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

MIA allows 3.0 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Kaelon Black has gone over 1.5 REC 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.