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Buffalo BillsKhalil Shakir
#10 · WR · 6' 0" · 190 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 56.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKhalil Shakir isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Shakir is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he put together a 72-719-4 receiving line on a team-high 95 targets, marking the second year in a row he paced the Bills in that category. While Moore now projects as QB Josh Allen's top WR target, Shakir should still see enough volume out of the slot in 2026 to maintain a degree of fantasy PPR utility. Meanwhile, as Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic has previously noted, the other starting spot in 11 personnel (three receivers) is up for grabs as training camp approaches, with Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman, Bell and Tyrell Shavers (knee) set to compete for slotting behind Moore and Shakir.
Verdict
vs 57.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
63.1 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 58.2 · L10 59.5 · med 61.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 34.8 · ceil 76.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 57.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 57.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
DJ Moore out-11.2 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
51.5 REC YDS
38% over 57.5
With (7g)
62.7 REC YDS
71% over 57.5
Last matchup — @ DEN
Jan 17, 2026
27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DEN allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Khalil Shakir has gone over 57.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 25.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.