Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutKhalil Shakir isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Shakir is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he put together a 72-719-4 receiving line on a team-high 95 targets, marking the second year in a row he paced the Bills in that category. While Moore now projects as QB Josh Allen's top WR target, Shakir should still see enough volume out of the slot in 2026 to maintain a degree of fantasy PPR utility. Meanwhile, as Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic has previously noted, the other starting spot in 11 personnel (three receivers) is up for grabs as training camp approaches, with Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman, Bell and Tyrell Shavers (knee) set to compete for slotting behind Moore and Shakir.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.06 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2015 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Season15 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	3/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away11%1/9Medium

Days since last game

3+ days21%3/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

DJ Moore out-0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (8g)

0.1 REC TD

13% over 0.5

With (7g)

0.3 REC TD

29% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ DEN

Jan 17, 2026

32ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 0.1 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Khalil Shakir has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 20% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.