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Chicago BearsKyle Monangai
#25 · RB · 5' 8" · 207 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 68.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Kyle Monangai's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Toe Sprain
Monangai also missed Wednesday's walkthrough due to the turf-toe injury that has sidelined him the last four contests. With no activity to speak of so far and just one more chance to practice this week, he seems to be trending toward another absence Sunday against the Buccaneers, something that may be confirmed on Friday's injury report. D'Andre Swift will continue to pace the Bears backfield for as long as Monangai is sidelined, with Roschon Johnson on hand for any RB reps that linger.
Verdict
vs 48.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
72.5 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 72.0 · L10 56.5 · med 42.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 32.6 · ceil 106.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 48.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 48.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
D'Andre Swift out-17.5 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
63.5 RUSH YDS
45% over 48.5
With (4g)
81.0 RUSH YDS
50% over 48.5
Luther Burden III out-17.5 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
63.5 RUSH YDS
45% over 48.5
With (4g)
81.0 RUSH YDS
50% over 48.5
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 36.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Monangai has gone over 48.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 46.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.