Chicago Bears

Kyle Monangai Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Monangai has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Rutgers
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.6 REC · our line

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OutKyle Monangai isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Adam Hoge of AllCHGO.com, head coach Ben Johnson acknowledged earlier Monday that Monangai missed time during the start of training camp last week due to a soft-tissue injury that's believed to be related to his hamstring. Johnson indicated that Monangai's absence would be "on the shorter side," and the second-year running back supported his coach's claim by getting back on the practice field. The Bears could still ease up on Monangai's reps early in camp, but he looks like he'll have a realistic shot at being available for the Aug. 15 preseason opener versus the Browns.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.8 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 2.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	9/12
1.5Current	42%	5/12
	33%	4/12
	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 18, 2026

7thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

LAR allows 2.4 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kyle Monangai has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.