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Chicago BearsKyle Monangai Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kyle Monangai has gone over 11.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 13.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Kyle Monangai's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Toe Sprain
Monangai continues to be listed as a DNP due to the turf-toe injury that's held him out of the last four games. It doesn't bode well for his odds to return to action Sunday against the Buccaneers that he remains sidelined, and the Bears have a Week 10 bye, so the team may be focused on getting him healthy for the final eight contests of the campaign. D'Andre Swift will continue to lead Chicago's backfield for as long as Monangai is out, with Roschon Johnson picking up the scraps behind Swift.
Verdict
vs 11.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
13.2 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 15.0 · L10 14.9 · med 10.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 22.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 11.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
D'Andre Swift out+4.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
14.5 REC YDS
55% over 11.5
With (4g)
9.8 REC YDS
25% over 11.5
Luther Burden III out+4.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
14.5 REC YDS
55% over 11.5
With (4g)
9.8 REC YDS
25% over 11.5
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 18.2 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Monangai has gone over 11.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (18.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Kyle Monangai research
Kyle Monangai — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Monangai Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Monangai Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Monangai Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Monangai Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.