Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Sr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 12.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 14.2 FS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutKyle Pitts Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Atlanta extended Pitts a franchise tender earlier this offseason, but both sides have agreed to terms on a multi-year deal that includes $36 million fully guaranteed. Per Schefter, Pitts' annual average salary makes him the third-highest paid tight end in the league behind George Kittle (Achilles) and Trey McBride. The Falcons also signed Drake London (undisclosed) to a massive four-year contract in early June, while Bijan Robinson remains a candidate for a new deal after the team exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Pitts produced an 88-928-5 line (118 targets) in 17 regular-season games last year and will look to build chemistry with quarterbacks Michael Penix (ACL) and Tua Tagovailoa this offseason.

Verdict

vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)74supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

18.5 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 21.3 · L10 15.2 · med 14.1

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 7.8 · ceil 16.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2014 games

57%over

8 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%

Season14 games

57%over

8 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	64%	9/14
	64%	9/14
	64%	9/14
12.5Current	57%	8/14
	43%	6/14
	43%	6/14
	21%	3/14

Last 14 games — FS per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home80%4/5Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days54%7/13Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Tua Tagovailoa out+2.3 FS when he sits

Without (9g)

15.0 FS

44% over 12.5

With (5g)

12.8 FS

80% over 12.5

Last matchup — vs NO

Jan 4, 2026

29thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

NO allows 5.3 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 12.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 57% across the full season. NO has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 29th-most FS of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.