Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Sr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutKyle Pitts Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Fresh off having recorded a career-best 88 receptions a season ago, Pitts was clearly impacted by the fact the Falcons were without their top two quarterbacks due to injury. Spot starter Cooper Rush was harassed into two interceptions and took four sacks, and when has able to successfully get a pass off, it typically landed in the hands of Bijan Robinson. Pitts' outlook will brighten when either Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) or Michael Penix (knee) are under center, and that could happen as soon as a Week 2 home matchup against the Panthers next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC TD(×1.02 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2015 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Season15 games

20%over

3 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 7%–45%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	3/15
	7%	1/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days21%3/14Medium

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 20, 2026

5thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

CAR allows 0.5 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.