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Atlanta FalconsKyle Pitts Sr. Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 7.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.5 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyle Pitts Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Pitts was able to make his mark in the catch column for the first time in the new season, but that one reception turned out to be his only contribution on the afternoon. However, given Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined to throw for only 145 yards and three interceptions, Pitts' sparse production is largely explained away. The talented tight end figures to see his outlook brighten whenever Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) are able to suit up, with a Week 3 Thursday night road matchup against the Packers their next opportunity to do so.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency49neutral
Projection
9.3 TGT(×1.10 context)
L5 9.6 · L10 8.4 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 9.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 7.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
12thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
GB allows 3.5 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 7.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Kyle Pitts Sr. research
Kyle Pitts Sr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Pitts Sr. Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Pitts Sr. Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Pitts Sr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.