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New England PatriotsKyle Williams
#18 · WR · 5' 11" · 190 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 19.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutKyle Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams didn't garner a target over 11 offensive snaps in the team's 13-10 loss to the Seahawks in Week 1. Now with A.J. Brown (ankle) on injured reserve, the second-year wide receiver has a clear path to more opportunities against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Williams caught 10 of 21 targets for 209 yards and three touchdowns over 17 regular-season contests with New England last season.
Verdict
vs 6.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.3 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 16.6 · L10 19.4 · med 8.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 35.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Situational splits
Over 6.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%5/7Low
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
13thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 53.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Kyle Williams has gone over 6.5 REC YDS 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (53.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.