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New England PatriotsKyle Williams
#18 · WR · 5' 11" · 190 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 20.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyle Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Callahan noted it appeared Williams was behind all of A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas and Efton Chism on the wideout depth chart Monday. Williams was a third-round pick last year, but New England has since added Brown and Doubs to the mix, leaving Williams in a fight for playing time. Williams' spot on the roster hasn't been brought into question at this point, but if he's this buried a month from now, it's fair to wonder if the Patriots would be willing to listen to offers for the 23-year-old after he produced just 10 catches for 209 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets across 17 regular-season appearances as a rookie.
Verdict
vs 6.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
19.2 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 14.6 · L10 20.7 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 40.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 6.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — vs SEA
Feb 8, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Kyle Williams has gone over 6.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.