New England Patriots

Kyle Williams Receptions

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Williams has gone over 0.5 REC in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.0 REC · our line

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OutKyle Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Callahan noted it appeared Williams was behind all of A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas and Efton Chism on the wideout depth chart Monday. Williams was a third-round pick last year, but New England has since added Brown and Doubs to the mix, leaving Williams in a fight for playing time. Williams' spot on the roster hasn't been brought into question at this point, but if he's this buried a month from now, it's fair to wonder if the Patriots would be willing to listen to offers for the 23-year-old after he produced just 10 catches for 209 yards and three touchdowns on 21 targets across 17 regular-season appearances as a rookie.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.2 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	57%	4/7
	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Last matchup — vs SEA

Feb 8, 2026

24thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Kyle Williams has gone over 0.5 REC 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.