New England Patriots

Kyle Williams Targets

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Williams has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.9 TGT · our line

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OutKyle Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Williams didn't garner a target over 11 offensive snaps in the team's 13-10 loss to the Seahawks in Week 1. Now with A.J. Brown (ankle) on injured reserve, the second-year wide receiver has a clear path to more opportunities against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Williams caught 10 of 21 targets for 209 yards and three touchdowns over 17 regular-season contests with New England last season.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency42neutral

Projection

3.2 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
2.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Next matchup — @ JAX

Sep 27, 2026

26thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

JAX allows 4.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Kyle Williams has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.