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Chicago BearsLuther Burden III
#10 · WR · 6' 0" · 210 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Missouri
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 53.5 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutLuther Burden III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
On a wet and windy day at Soldier Field, Burden led all Bears in targets, but that volume didn't result in much production. The second-year wideout has had a slow start to the season, posting an 8-95-0 line on 12 targets through two contests, and his outlook in the short term won't be improved if the hamstring injury that knocked Caleb Williams out of Sunday's contest proves to be serious. Burden could be catching passes from Tyson Bagent instead in a Week 3 home tilt against the Eagles.
Verdict
vs 36.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
49.7 REC YDS
L5 39.2 · L10 56.4 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.2 · ceil 66.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Season12 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Situational splits
Over 36.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
PHI allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Luther Burden III has gone over 36.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.