Chicago Bears

Luther Burden III Targets

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Luther Burden III has gone over 5.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Missouri
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.0 TGT · our line

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OutLuther Burden III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"Yesterday, he had numerous explosive plays," Johnson continued. "I'm really happy with him." Burden has had one of the biggest hype trains of the offseason after Chicago traded DJ Moore to the Bills back in March. As a rookie last season, Burden averaged 2.69 yards per route run, the highest mark for a first-year player since 2016, and only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted better yards-per-route numbers in 2025. With Moore out of the picture, Burden is expected to play in all two-wide sets alongside Rome Odunze this season. In one of the league's more explosive offenses, Burden's arrow is pointing upward in a big way.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency59neutral

Projection

7.0 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 6.8 · L10 6.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 4.8 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Season10 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	100%	10/10
	80%	8/10
5.5Current	60%	6/10
	40%	4/10
	10%	1/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%6/9Low

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 18, 2026

4thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

LAR allows 6.1 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Luther Burden III has gone over 5.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.