Chicago Bears

Luther Burden III Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Luther Burden III has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Missouri
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutLuther Burden III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

On a wet and windy day at Soldier Field, Burden led all Bears in targets, but that volume didn't result in much production. The second-year wideout has had a slow start to the season, posting an 8-95-0 line on 12 targets through two contests, and his outlook in the short term won't be improved if the hamstring injury that knocked Caleb Williams out of Sunday's contest proves to be serious. Burden could be catching passes from Tyson Bagent instead in a Week 3 home tilt against the Eagles.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2012 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Season12 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/6Medium

Away17%1/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days9%1/11Medium

Next matchup — vs PHI

Sep 29, 2026

17thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

PHI allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Luther Burden III has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.