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New England PatriotsMack Hollins
#13 · WR · 6' 4" · 221 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 59.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMack Hollins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Calf Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 8, 2026
Hollins last saw game action in Week 4, but it's possible that his absence could be capped at the minimum mandated four contests. Prior to sustaining his calf injury, Hollins had recorded a 15-209-0 line on 20 targets, and if he's able to return to action Sunday against the Packers, a key role in the offense could await, with A.J. Brown's (ankle/knee) Week 9 status cloudy.
Verdict
vs 58.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency28argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
70.2 REC YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 67.6 · L10 60.2 · med 58.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.2 · ceil 85.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 58.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out-5.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
58.6 REC YDS
56% over 58.5
With (3g)
63.7 REC YDS
33% over 58.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out-5.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
58.6 REC YDS
56% over 58.5
With (3g)
63.7 REC YDS
33% over 58.5
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
14thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 45.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mack Hollins has gone over 58.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (45.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 25.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.