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New England PatriotsMack Hollins
#13 · WR · 6' 4" · 221 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 58.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMack Hollins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Patriots signed Julian Hill earlier in the offseason as experienced depth behind Hunter Henry, but Hill suffered a season-ending knee injury during the spring. New England used a third-round pick on Eli Raridon, but it remains to be seen if he'll develop enough to contribute right away. Hollins is 6-foot-4 and 221 pounds and known as one of the most willing blocking wideouts in the league, so it wouldn't be foreign for Hollins to play closer to the line of scrimmage to get his hands on opposing edge defenders and linebackers.
Verdict
vs 63.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
61.5 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 48.2 · L10 58.6 · med 64.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 28.8 · ceil 82.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 63.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 63.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Last matchup — vs SEA
Feb 8, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Mack Hollins has gone over 63.5 REC YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.