New England Patriots

Mack Hollins Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mack Hollins has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutMack Hollins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After leading the Patriots with 51 receiving yards on four receptions in the team's season opener, Hollins had a more subdued performance versus the Steelers. The veteran wideout was nonetheless on the field often, logging 39 of New England's 55 offensive snaps -- most among the club's wideouts (Romeo Doubs was second with 37 offensive snaps). Although Doubs and DeMario Douglas were listed as the Patriots' starting wideouts, Douglas logged just 26 offensive snaps, so Hollins may have at least temporarily leapfrogged him in the pecking order.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Season10 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days11%1/9Medium

Next matchup — @ JAX

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

JAX allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Mack Hollins has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 10% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 10%.