New England Patriots

Mack Hollins Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mack Hollins has gone over 10.5 FS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 11.1 FS · our line

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OutMack Hollins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Patriots signed Julian Hill earlier in the offseason as experienced depth behind Hunter Henry, but Hill suffered a season-ending knee injury during the spring. New England used a third-round pick on Eli Raridon, but it remains to be seen if he'll develop enough to contribute right away. Hollins is 6-foot-4 and 221 pounds and known as one of the most willing blocking wideouts in the league, so it wouldn't be foreign for Hollins to play closer to the line of scrimmage to get his hands on opposing edge defenders and linebackers.

Verdict

vs 10.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency28argues against it

Projection

12.3 FS(×1.03 context)

L5 10.0 · L10 11.1 · med 10.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 6.1 · ceil 16.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	6/9
	56%	5/9
	56%	5/9
10.5Current	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 10.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 10.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

Last matchup — vs SEA

Feb 8, 2026

26thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 8.5 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Mack Hollins has gone over 10.5 FS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most FS of 32 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.