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Miami DolphinsMalik Willis
#2 · QB · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 181.1 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMalik Willis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The 27-year-old QB hit Malik Washington for a one-yard score just before halftime to give the Dolphins a 13-3 lead, but Willis' 35-yard strike to Kevin Coleman late in the fourth quarter was too little, too late after the Patriots dominated the second half. After throwing just one touchdown over the first four games of the season, Willis has a 5:3 TD:INT in the last three contests while adding two scores on the ground. He'll likely need to be even more productive in Week 9 as he attempts to keep pace with Jared Goff and the Lions.
Verdict
vs 207.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency57neutral
Projection
175.1 PASS YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 170.2 · L10 181.1 · med 208.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 149.0 · ceil 210.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Situational splits
Over 207.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs DET
Nov 8, 2026
1stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DET allows 297.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Malik Willis has gone over 207.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (297.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 46.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 207.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-16.7%
Our model puts the over at 33.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (207.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.