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Miami DolphinsMalik Willis
#2 · QB · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 4 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 2 of these 4 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 206.5 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMalik Willis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Willis unsurprisingly posted another modest passing total after throwing for 220 yards in his Dolphins debut against the Raiders, but he also failed to get anything going with his legs in Week 2 after rushing for 39 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 loss. A substantial chunk of Willis' production came on a 77-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Miller with 2:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. Miami doesn't have much experience in its wide receiver room, which got even thinner during Sunday's loss due to the second-half exit of rookie third-round pick Caleb Douglas (ankle). Willis and the Dolphins have been outscored 62-26 heading into a Week 3 home game against the Chiefs.
Verdict
vs 182.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
191.6 PASS YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 206.5 · L10 206.5 · med 208.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 166.6 · ceil 247.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Last 104 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Last 204 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Season4 games
75%over
3 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–95%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 182.5Current | 75% | 3/4 | |
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 |
Situational splits
Over 182.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%3/3Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 170.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Malik Willis has gone over 182.5 PASS YDS 3 of 4 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (170.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 59.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 183.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.2% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.9%
Our model puts the over at 57.8% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (183 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.