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Miami DolphinsMalik Willis Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Malik Willis has gone over 2.5 PASS TD in 0 of his last 4 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Linepays more
Passing TDs · season avg 0.8 PASS TD · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMalik Willis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Willis unsurprisingly posted another modest passing total after throwing for 220 yards in his Dolphins debut against the Raiders, but he also failed to get anything going with his legs in Week 2 after rushing for 39 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 loss. A substantial chunk of Willis' production came on a 77-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Miller with 2:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. Miami doesn't have much experience in its wide receiver room, which got even thinner during Sunday's loss due to the second-half exit of rookie third-round pick Caleb Douglas (ankle). Willis and the Dolphins have been outscored 62-26 heading into a Week 3 home game against the Chiefs.
Verdict
vs 2.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 3% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line9argues against it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
0.7 PASS TD(×0.92 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 0.6 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Last 104 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Last 204 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Season4 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Situational splits
Over 2.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/3Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
19thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 1.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Malik Willis has gone over 2.5 PASS TD 0 of 4 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 19th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 0.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 63.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 36.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-151
+5.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars+161
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-60.7%
Our model puts the over at 2.5% vs the market's no-vig 63.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.
More Malik Willis research
Malik Willis — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Willis Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Willis Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Willis Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.