Miami Dolphins

Malik Willis Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Malik Willis has gone over 22.5 FS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Liberty
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 22.4 FS · our line

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OutMalik Willis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

When Willis signed his three-year, $67.5 million deal in March, Miami still had an established No. 1 receiver in Jaylen Waddle, who has since been traded to Denver. As a result, the Dolphins now enter the summer with a far less proven receiving corps headlined by Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and TE Greg Dulcich, while rookies Caleb Douglas (undisclosed), Chris Bell (ACL) and Kevin Coleman continue to compete for roles. Another factor in Willis' uneven start to OTAs and minicamp has been the absence of De'Von Achane (shoulder), arguably Miami's most dynamic pass catcher, who has been limited to individual drills while recovering from an offseason procedure. OC Bobby Slowik suggested Thursday developing chemistry with the team's receivers will "probably be an ongoing process all the way up to the regular-season start." Much of Willis' fantasy appeal stems from his dual-threat ability, but it would still be encouraging to see the passing game gain traction once training camp begins in July.

Verdict

vs 22.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency32argues against it

Projection

22.8 FS

L5 22.4 · L10 22.4 · med 22.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 16.9 · ceil 27.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
22.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — FS per game vs. line 22.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 22.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs BAL

Dec 28, 2025

13thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

BAL allows 16.9 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Malik Willis has gone over 22.5 FS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (16.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.