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Green Bay PackersMatthew Golden
#0 · WR · 5' 11" · 191 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 44.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Golden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
In addition to leading the team in receiving yards, Golden drew a pivotal 38-yard pass interference penalty to get the Packers out of a first-and-25 hole on a drive that culminated in a Christian Watson touchdown catch to cut the deficit to three points in the fourth quarter. Golden has been out-targeted 19-18 by Watson through two games, and both wide receivers figure to maintain prominent roles in Thursday's Week 3 home game against the Eagles. Fellow Packers wideout Jayden Reed (neck) looks unlikely to suit up for that game after being carted off the field on the opening drive Sunday.
Verdict
vs 51.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
57.9 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 51.4 · L10 38.6 · med 30.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.2 · ceil 73.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 51.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 51.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 59.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Golden has gone over 51.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (59.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 54.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.4%
Our model puts the over at 59.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (54.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.