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Green Bay PackersMatthew Golden
#0 · WR · 5' 11" · 191 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 80.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Golden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Golden led the Packers in receptions and targets while finishing second in receiving yards, and the latter total was also a new career high. The second-year wideout also laid claim to the game's longest catch (49 yards), and he reeled in the first of Jordan Love's three TD passes on the day with a five-yard grab at just under the eight-minute mark of the first quarter. Golden now has four 100-yard efforts in what is already a breakout campaign, one that's seen him amass a 53-783-5 line on 92 targets heading into a Week 10 home showdown against the Vikings next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 94.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 30% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line30argues against it
Consistency29argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
67.5 REC YDS(×0.87 context)
L5 73.2 · L10 80.1 · med 95.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 47.0 · ceil 103.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 94.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 94.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Nov 15, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 39.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 21 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Matthew Golden has gone over 94.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (39.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 34.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 69.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-20.2%
Our model puts the over at 29.7% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (68.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.