Green Bay Packers

Matthew Golden Targets

Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Matthew Golden has gone over 11.5 TGT in 5 of his last 7 decided games (71%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 10.9 TGT · our line

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OutMatthew Golden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The second-year speedster finished second in receptions and receiving yards for the Packers on the night, while also leading the way in targets with a season-high-tying figure. Golden struck for his fourth touchdown of the season as well on a 24-yard scoring grab just after the two-minute warning in the first half, and the 2025 first-round pick now has at least six catches in four consecutive contests. He should remain busy in a Week 9 road showdown against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8, one where New England shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez could spend the majority of his time on Christian Watson.

Verdict

vs 11.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line34argues against it

Consistency62supports it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

9.6 TGT(×0.86 context)

L5 10.4 · L10 10.9 · med 12.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.0 · ceil 12.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Last 207 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Season7 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	5/7
	71%	5/7
	71%	5/7
11.5Current	71%	5/7
	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Next matchup — @ NE

Nov 8, 2026

21stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 26 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Matthew Golden has gone over 11.5 TGT 5 of 7 decided times (71%) — versus 71% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 21st-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.