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Green Bay PackersMatthew Golden Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Matthew Golden has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.2 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Golden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
In addition to leading the team in receiving yards, Golden drew a pivotal 38-yard pass interference penalty to get the Packers out of a first-and-25 hole on a drive that culminated in a Christian Watson touchdown catch to cut the deficit to three points in the fourth quarter. Golden has been out-targeted 19-18 by Watson through two games, and both wide receivers figure to maintain prominent roles in Thursday's Week 3 home game against the Eagles. Fellow Packers wideout Jayden Reed (neck) looks unlikely to suit up for that game after being carted off the field on the opening drive Sunday.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
3.8 REC(×1.10 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.4 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 3.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 8% | 1/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
8thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 4.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Golden has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC of 32 teams (4.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.0%
Best Over
BetMGM+115
-3.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-136
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.1%
Our model puts the over at 53.0% vs the market's no-vig 45.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More Matthew Golden research
Matthew Golden — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Golden Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Golden Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Golden Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.