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Tennessee TitansMichael Carter
#22 · RB · 5' 8" · 201 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 31.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Carter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Carter's familiarity with coach Robert Saleh from their time together with the Jets could help him carve out a spot in Tennessee. He boasts receiving skills and versatility, but Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are firmly positioned atop the depth chart, while rookie Nicholas Singleton represents real competition for the No. 3 spot. Carter will need to separate from Singleton in order to secure a notable role behind Pollard and Spears.
Verdict
vs 28.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
31.9 RUSH YDS
L5 37.0 · L10 31.5 · med 28.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 15.8 · ceil 52.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 28.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Last matchup — @ LAR
Jan 4, 2026
25thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAR allows 44.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Carter has gone over 28.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.