Tennessee Titans

Michael Carter Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Michael Carter has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.1 RUSH TD · our line

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OutMichael Carter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Carter's familiarity with coach Robert Saleh from their time together with the Jets could help him carve out a spot in Tennessee. He boasts receiving skills and versatility, but Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are firmly positioned atop the depth chart, while rookie Nicholas Singleton represents real competition for the No. 3 spot. Carter will need to separate from Singleton in order to secure a notable role behind Pollard and Spears.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 94% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line94supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.0 RUSH TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Season10 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away0%0/5Medium

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/9Medium

Last matchup — @ LAR

Jan 4, 2026

28thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

LAR allows 0.2 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Michael Carter has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 10% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 10%.