Tennessee Titans

Michael Carter Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Michael Carter has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.1 REC · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutMichael Carter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Carter's familiarity with coach Robert Saleh from their time together with the Jets could help him carve out a spot in Tennessee. He boasts receiving skills and versatility, but Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are firmly positioned atop the depth chart, while rookie Nicholas Singleton represents real competition for the No. 3 spot. Carter will need to separate from Singleton in order to secure a notable role behind Pollard and Spears.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency15argues against it

Projection

2.8 REC

L5 2.8 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	90%	9/10
	60%	6/10
3.5Current	40%	4/10
	30%	3/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%3/9Low

Last matchup — @ LAR

Jan 4, 2026

7thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

LAR allows 2.4 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Michael Carter has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.