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San Francisco 49ersMike Evans
#5 · WR · 6' 5" · 231 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 73.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Evans isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Achilles Tendinitis
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
With Evans now having been absent from the media-viewing portion of practice again Friday, his status for Sunday's game against the Raiders remains in serious doubt. After a round of likely DNPs, Evans' return may have to wait until Week 10, though the veteran wideout has been known to play despite logging DNPs. It could be another patchwork week at wide receiver for the Niners.
Verdict
vs 75.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency34argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
89.3 REC YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 73.2 · L10 73.2 · med 76.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 46.0 · ceil 97.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 75.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 75.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Nov 8, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 51.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Mike Evans has gone over 75.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. LV has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (51.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.