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San Francisco 49ersMike Evans
#13 · WR · 6' 5" · 231 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 55.7 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Mike Evans's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Quadriceps Strain
With Evans now dealing with a quad strain, the 49ers are banged up at wideout at the moment. On top of Ricky Pearsall's (knee) placement on IR, Christian Kirk is dealing with a calf injury, while De'Zhaun Stribling is managing hamstring tightness. For now, consider Evans day-to-day ahead of the team's Aug. 13 preseason opener against the Titans.
Verdict
vs 54.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 23/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
54.9 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 56.6 · L10 55.7 · med 42.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 31.0 · ceil 56.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Situational splits
Over 54.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Dec 28, 2025
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 37.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Mike Evans has gone over 54.5 REC YDS 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.