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San Francisco 49ersMike Evans Targets
Stats updated: Oct 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Evans has gone over 7.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Targets · season avg 7.2 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Mike Evans's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Achilles Tendinitis
After back-to-back DNPs to open Week 9 prep, Evans technically has one more chance to mix into drills this week, but GM John Lynch said on KNBR radio Thursday that the wide receiver likely won't be available Sunday versus the Raiders due to his lingering right Achilles issue, per Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. The 49ers may make a ruling on Evans' status as soon as they post Friday's injury report.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsCool underFireFactor 22/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency60supports it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
7.7 TGT(×1.07 context)
L5 7.2 · L10 7.2 · med 7.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 5.8 · ceil 8.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 7.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Mike Evans has gone over 7.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Mike Evans research
Mike Evans — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Evans Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Evans Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Evans Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.