Loading…
San Francisco 49ersMike Evans Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Evans has gone over 3.5 REC in 6 of his last 7 decided games (86%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Linepays less
Receptions · season avg 4.9 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Mike Evans's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hip Not Specified
Coach Kyle Shanahan already said Monday that Evans would be carefully managed this week, so the veteran's lack of participation in practice Wednesday is not overly surprising. Evans left Sunday's game in the fourth quarter with a hip issue. Friday's injury report will give the best intel on Evans' status for the Week 3 matchup against the Cardinals. The 49ers' receiver depth is being tested early, with Demarcus Robinson (ankle) joining De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle), Ricky Pearsall (knee), and Christian Kirk (calf) among the injured wideouts.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsWarm overFireFactor 40/100· model 80% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency66supports it
Projection
5.1 REC(×1.05 context)
L5 4.8 · L10 4.9 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.2 · ceil 5.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~65% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Last 207 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Season7 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 3.5Current | 86% | 6/7 | |
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days83%5/6Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 4.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Mike Evans has gone over 3.5 REC 6 of 7 decided times (86%) — versus 86% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 54.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 45.8%
Best Over
FanDuel-132
-4.7% EV
Best Under
Caesars+112
-2.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+25.3%
Our model puts the over at 79.5% vs the market's no-vig 54.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 86%.
More Mike Evans research
Mike Evans — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Evans Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Evans Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Evans Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.