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Los Angeles ChargersOronde Gadsden
#86 · TE · 6' 5" · 236 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Syracuse
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 51.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOronde Gadsden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both David Njoku (fibula) and Charlie Kolar (forearm) are expected to go on injured reserve due to injuries they suffered during Sunday's loss. Given those injuries, as well as Ladd McConkey being limited by a lingering rib injury, Gadsden should operate in an elevated role in the passing game over the coming weeks. Gadsden showed flashes of promise during the 2025 regular season, including a three-game stretch from Weeks 6 to 8, when he caught 19 passes (on 22 targets) for 309 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers hit the road for Week 3 against the Bills, whose defense has yielded a 14-116-1 line (on 19 targets) to tight ends through two games.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
37.4 REC YDS(×0.87 context)
L5 34.2 · L10 56.1 · med 51.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.8 · ceil 68.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 43.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
13thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
BUF allows 23.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Oronde Gadsden has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 40.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 13.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-108
-3.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-6.0%
Our model puts the over at 44.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.