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Los Angeles ChargersOronde Gadsden Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Oronde Gadsden has gone over 3.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Syracuse
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOronde Gadsden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both David Njoku (fibula) and Charlie Kolar (forearm) are expected to go on injured reserve due to injuries they suffered during Sunday's loss. Given those injuries, as well as Ladd McConkey being limited by a lingering rib injury, Gadsden should operate in an elevated role in the passing game over the coming weeks. Gadsden showed flashes of promise during the 2025 regular season, including a three-game stretch from Weeks 6 to 8, when he caught 19 passes (on 22 targets) for 309 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers hit the road for Week 3 against the Bills, whose defense has yielded a 14-116-1 line (on 19 targets) to tight ends through two games.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
3.0 REC(×0.87 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 4.0 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.2 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 92% | 11/12 | ||
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
11thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
BUF allows 2.8 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Oronde Gadsden has gone over 3.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC of 32 teams (2.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 51.0%
Best Over
Caesars+111
+3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.1%
Our model puts the over at 36.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Oronde Gadsden research
Oronde Gadsden — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gadsden Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Gadsden Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Gadsden Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.