Los Angeles Chargers

Oronde Gadsden Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Oronde Gadsden has gone over 3.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Syracuse
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutOronde Gadsden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Gadsden broke out as a rookie fifth-round pick last season, totaling a 49-664-3 receiving line over 15 regular-season games at just 22 years old. While Gadsden remains primed to take a step forward in his development in Year 2, Los Angeles inked blocking specialist Charlie Kolar to a three-year deal at the outset of free agency, and Njoku's arrival now makes for a crowded TE room. Gadsden, a 6-foot-5, 236-pound converted wide receiver, boasts a similar frame and skill set to Njoku, a nine-year veteran and off-the-charts athlete who totaled a career-high 81-882-6 receiving line in 2023 but struggled with injuries over the last two seasons and was overtaken by rookie Harold Fannin with the Browns in 2025. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel relied heavily on multi-TE sets during his four-year stint with the Dolphins, and the Chargers have little proven production at WR behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, so a path exists for both Gadsden and Njoku to operate as top targets for QB Justin Herbert.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency21argues against it

Projection

3.1 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 4.0 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.2 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	92%	11/12
	75%	9/12
3.5Current	50%	6/12
	42%	5/12
	17%	2/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Omarion Hampton out+1.8 REC when he sits

Without (6g)

4.8 REC

67% over 3.5

With (6g)

3.0 REC

33% over 3.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 12, 2026

12thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

NE allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Oronde Gadsden has gone over 3.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.