Jacksonville Jaguars

Parker Washington Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Parker Washington has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutParker Washington isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Washington is operating in a deep and talented WR corps that also includes Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, but Shipley noted Sunday that Washington has routinely been the top target for QB Trevor Lawrence in practice during training camp. Meanwhile, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com relays that Thomas, a 2024 first-rounder and projected starter, also has started camp on a positive note. With Meyers also on track to see his share of volume this season and Hunter potentially making a splash when he's not logging cornerback snaps, Washington has plenty of competition for targets, but the chemistry he's displayed with Lawrence thus far this summer nonetheless bodes well for his chances of building off his strong effort down the stretch last season.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	5/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs BUF

Jan 11, 2026

13thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

BUF allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Parker Washington has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.