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Jacksonville JaguarsParker Washington Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Parker Washington has gone over 9.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 9.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutParker Washington isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Washington led the Jaguars across the board in receptions, receiving yards and targets while also posting a game-high 32-yard catch. The fourth-year wideout has picked up right where he left off during his breakout stretch run and postseason in 2025, as he's quickly put together a 12-181-1 line on 18 targets over his first two games. Washington will remain a focal point of the Jaguars' air attack in a second consecutive marquee matchup in Week 3 at home against the defending AFC champion Patriots.
Verdict
vs 9.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency59neutral
Projection
10.8 TGT(×1.14 context)
L5 9.8 · L10 9.2 · med 9.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 7.0 · ceil 10.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 10/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 25% | 3/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 6.7 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Parker Washington has gone over 9.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Parker Washington research
Parker Washington — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Washington Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Washington Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Washington Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.